Charts: Ecommerce Penetration of Global Retail

Cowen Inc. is a U.S.-based multinational investment bank and financial services company. In May 2022, Cowen’s research team released its fifth annual “US eCommerce Disruption” report, an in-depth study of all U.S. retail sectors.

According to Cowen’s model, penetration in key categories such as food and beverage, consumables, and furniture and home furnishings will be the main drivers of U.S. ecommerce growth.

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The pandemic accelerated consumers’ digital purchase habits. Data from Cowen found exceptional growth in U.S. online grocery sales. Cowen’s proprietary survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers found that 38.5% of respondents’ households had used online grocery delivery in the previous month during Q1 2022, double the 19% in Q4 2019, the last pre-pandemic survey.

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GlobalData Plc is a U.K.-based data analytics and consulting company. According to GlobalData’s Q1 2022 consumer survey, 58% of shoppers worldwide, on average, anticipate increasing or maintaining online grocery shopping in the following months. The percentages vary, from 33% in Switzerland to 91% in China.

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Across all global regions, ecommerce as a share of retail sales is increasing. According to a June 2022 report from Morgan Stanley, in some regions of Southeast Asia and Latin America over the next five years, ecommerce could grow by 17% and 20%, respectively.

Brian Nowak, a Morgan Stanley equity analyst covering the U.S. internet industry, stated, “We believe that the Covid-driven bump will not flatten future e-commerce growth. Across the world, we have yet to see a ceiling for e-commerce penetration. While the rise of e-commerce during the first year of Covid-19 in 2020 is easily explained, the fact that growth persisted in 2021 is evidence of a real behavioral shift to shopping online.”